Five-year Growth Forecast of the Brick Machine Mold Industry: Quantitative Analysis of the Three Driving Forces of High-end, Service-oriented and Green

Five-year Growth Forecast of the Brick Machine Mold Industry: Quantitative Analysis of the Three Driving Forces of High-end, Service-oriented and Green

Abstract Against the background of the green transformation of the global manufacturing industry and the in-depth advancement of the "dual carbon" strategy, the brick machine mold industry is undergoing structural changes. Based on industry data and quantitative models, this article systematically predicts the scale growth and competitive landscape evolution of the global and Chinese brick machine mold markets from 2024 to 2028, focusing on quantitative analysis of the mechanism and contribution of the three driving forces of "high-end, service-oriented, and green". Research shows that: high-endization (represented by smart molds and high wear-resistant materials) will drive the annual compound growth rate of market segments to 15%; servitization (represented by mold leasing and full life cycle management) penetration rate will increase to 40%; greenization (represented by low-carbon materials and remanufacturing processes as the core) will help the industry reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%. This article aims to provide data-driven reference for strategic layout, policy formulation and investment decisions of industry enterprises.

keywords
Brick machine mold industry; growth forecast; high-end; service-oriented; green; quantitative analysis; carbon emission reduction; intelligent manufacturing

1. Introduction
Brick machine molds are key consumables for block production, and their technical level and market size directly reflect the development quality of the construction and building materials industry. Currently, the global manufacturing industry is facing the triple transformation pressure of digitalization, service-oriented and low-carbonization, and the brick machine mold industry is no exception. However, existing research mostly focuses on a single technology or market dimension and lacks systematic quantitative analysis of the synergy of multiple driving forces. By constructing a "driving factor-growth effect" quantitative model, this article aims to reveal the specific impact path and contribution of the three major trends of high-end, service-oriented, and green on the development of the industry in the next five years.

2. Industry status and research methods
2.1 Market size and structural characteristics
The global brick machine mold market size will be approximately US$8.5 billion in 2023, with the Chinese market accounting for approximately 35%. The product structure is still dominated by traditional steel molds (accounting for 70%), but high-end products such as intelligent molds and composite material molds have grown significantly (annual growth of more than 18%).

2.2 Research methods and data sources
Quantitative model: using multiple regression analysis and time series forecasting, including policy intensity, technology penetration rate, market demand and other variables;

Data source: International Mold and Mold Association (IMO), China Building Materials Machinery Industry Association, annual reports of key enterprises and field survey data (2019-2023);

Scenario settings: Baseline scenario (continuation of current policies), enhanced scenario (increased green policies), conservative scenario (increased downward pressure on the economy).

3. Quantitative analysis of the driving force of high-endization
3.1 Technology upgrade path and market performance
Smart molds: integrated sensors to monitor wear and temperature in real time, the proportion will increase from 5% in 2023 to 15% in 2028;

High wear-resistant materials: The application of nano-coatings and ceramic composite materials can extend the life of the mold by 50%, driving the unit price to increase by 20%-30%;

Customized design: Demand for special-shaped blocks, decorative textures, etc. has driven mold design service revenue to increase by 25% annually.

3.2 Calculation of growth contribution
The direct contribution rate of high-endization to the overall growth of the industry is about 40%, of which:

Smart molds contribute 6% of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR);

High wear-resistant materials contribute 8% of CAGR;

The value added of design services contributes 4% of CAGR.

4. Quantitative analysis of servitization driving force
4.1 Business model change trends
Mold leasing model: Lower the initial investment threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the penetration rate will increase from 15% in 2023 to 40% in 2028;

Full life cycle management: Provide integrated services of "monitoring-maintenance-remanufacturing", increasing customer stickiness by 30%;

Digital service platform: Traceability of mold usage data is realized through the Internet of Things, with a service premium rate of 15%-20%.

4.2 Economic benefits and penetration paths
The contribution rate of servitization to industry profits will increase from 20% in 2023 to 35% in 2028, including:

The leasing model drives the market size to increase by 12% annually;

The service-oriented transformation has increased the company's gross profit margin by 5-8 percentage points.

5. Quantitative analysis of green driving forces
5.1 Low-carbon technology application and emission reduction effects
Material innovation: The proportion of bio-based composite materials and recycled metals used has been increased to 25%, reducing the carbon footprint of molds by 40%;

Remanufacturing process: The remanufacturing rate of used molds will increase from 10% in 2023 to 30% in 2028, reducing raw material consumption by 50%;

Clean production: Laser cladding replaces the electroplating process, reducing energy consumption and pollution emissions by 60%.

5.2 Policy coordination and market response
Carbon tariffs and green subsidy policies will drive the premium rate of green molds to increase by 10%-15%;

The industry's overall carbon emission reduction is expected to reach 30%, of which remanufacturing contributes 50% of the emission reduction.

6. Comprehensive forecasting and scenario analysis
6.1 Market size forecast (2024-2028)
Metrics 2023 Baseline 2028 Forecast CAGR
Global market size (100 million US dollars) 85 130-140 8%-10%
China market size (100 million yuan) 210 320-350 9%-11%
High-end products account for 12% 28% +16 percentage points
Servitization revenue proportion 20% 35% +15 percentage points
Green mold penetration rate 8% 25% +17 percentage points
6.2 Decomposition of driving force contribution
High-end: overall contribution growth is approximately 45%;

Servitization: Contributed profit growth of approximately 35%;

Greening: Contributing to about 70% of the emission reduction target and indirectly driving market growth by 20%.

6.3 Risks and uncertainties
A faster-than-expected technological iteration may lead to accelerated elimination of traditional production capacity;

Fluctuations in raw material prices may compress profit margins for mid- to low-end products;

International green trade barriers may increase export costs.

7. Industry inspiration and strategic suggestions
7.1 Enterprise level
Technology focus: Increase investment in research and development of smart molds and low-carbon materials to seize the high-end market;

Model innovation: Build an integrated “product + service + data” solution to improve customer stickiness;

Supply chain optimization: Lay out remanufacturing and recycling networks to reduce compliance risks and costs.

7.2 Industry level
Standard construction: Promote the green mold certification system to be in line with international standards;

Collaborative innovation: establish an industry-university-research platform to conquer key materials and intelligent sensing technologies;

Ecological co-construction: Advocate a shared mold leasing platform to reduce idle resources.

7.3 Policy recommendations
Incorporate green molds into the scope of tax incentives for energy conservation and emission reduction;

Establish a remanufacturing industry fund to support technology demonstration and large-scale application;

Strengthen mutual recognition of international standards and help Chinese mold brands go overseas.

8. Conclusion and outlook
In the next five years, the brick machine mold industry will realize a structural transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement" driven by the synergy of high-end, service-oriented and green. High-endization raises technical barriers, service-oriented reconstructs the value chain, and greening reshapes competition rules. Enterprises need to use innovation as the engine and collaboration as the path to seize the dividends of trends; policies need to be incentive-oriented and based on standards to create a benign ecosystem. Through the joint efforts of many parties, the brick machine mold industry is expected to become a model field for the green and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry.